A COVID-19 outbreak among wild mountain gorillas in the Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda, might lead to the collapse of the population, according to a modeling research study released in Scientific Reports.
SARS-CoV-2 infections have formerly been identified among captive western lowland gorillas, nevertheless, the potential threat that COVID-19 presents to wild apes, including threatened mountain gorillas, has been uncertain..
Fernando Colchero and coworkers simulated the likelihood that a COVID-19 break out in a population of mountain gorillas living in Volcanoes National Park might cause the collapse of this population. Utilizing information collected in between 1967-2018 on 396 gorillas by the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund, the authors took into consideration annual variations in the size and structure of this population. They also accounted for epidemiological elements that affect COVID-19 illness dynamics in humans, including the number of individuals that contract the disease from a contaminated individual (R0); the probability of death after infection; the possibility of establishing immunity; and resistance duration.
The authors ran 2,000 simulations in which the size and structure of the population in the park varied at various rates and discovered that, under comparable epidemiological conditions to those reported in human outbreaks, 71% of these simulated populations would collapse within 50 years. The authors recommend that death might be higher amongst gorillas than human beings, owing to the lower schedule of treatments for gorillas. The percentage of the 2,000 simulated populations in the park that would collapse within 50 years increased to 80% when this was accounted for in the design. While the average R0 of COVID-19 in people has formerly been found to be roughly 2.5, the authors discovered that when the R0 among gorillas was at least 1.05, the likelihood of population collapse increased. This demonstrates the value of limiting SARS-CoV-2 transmission within the population.
The authors keep in mind that the propensity of gorilla groups to naturally socially distance from each other most likely decreases the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, this population has grown recently, causing greater rates of intergroup encounters and possibly increasing the chance for disease transmission.
The findings highlight the threat that the COVID-19 pandemic currently postures to the mountain gorilla population of the Volcanoes National Park. The authors recommend that measures to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission, such as mask using and the vaccination of park staff and travelers, in addition to regular screening of gorillas for possible infections continue to be executed within the park..
Recommendation: “Exploring the prospective result of COVID-19 on a threatened fantastic ape” by Fernando Colchero, Winnie Eckardt and Tara Stoinski, 21 October 2021, Scientific Reports.DOI: 10.1038/ s41598-021-00061-8.