Could it take place?
Do not look now– but we are presently experiencing a rash of stories about a forthcoming worldwide catastrophe. But in a modification from reports of pandemics and climate change, this worldwide catastrophe is produced by the impact of a giant asteroid. Or comet. Or both. This may feel extra threatening provided the occasions in the current Netflix movie “Dont Look Up,” in which the Earth is threatened by a “world killer” asteroid.
However how concerned should we really be– and what would happen if such a body actually hit us?
It has actually been my experience that killer asteroids tend to strike in the summertime months, when news is thin on the ground. Maybe we are so exhausted of grim news about the spread of the omicron COVID variation and associated problems that a killer asteroid (or comet) makes a rejuvenating modification.
In a modification from reports of pandemics and climate modification, this global catastrophe is produced by the effect of a huge asteroid. There are a further three asteroids forecasted to pass in between 1 and 5 million miles from the Earth in the next couple of days, varying in size from that of a car to that of the Statue of Liberty. The Earth has been struck by large asteroids in the past– which is why there are no huge dinosaurs roaming the planet today. There are also plans to reduce the prospective repercussions from an asteroid on accident course with the Earth. The launch in November of NASAs DART mission, a technology-testing mission, will further help shed light on how to finest deflect asteroids threatening Earth.
Some UK newspapers have relied on Nostradamus, the 16th century astrologer. A couple ran stories at the end of 2021 about 2022 being the year in which Nostradamus anticipated that the world would end in a huge impact with a body from space. This hook has actually led to inventories of things that may (or, most likely, will not) come close to the Earth in 2022.
My favorite list was released by the Sun paper, which explained five asteroids heading towards the Earth in January alone.
The frightening headline and its accompanying image of an Earth in apparent danger is rather undermined by the sentences following the image, in which the paper mentions that “all of the forecasted asteroids this year will pass by Earth by a considerable range and is extremely not likely they will hit our planet.” We have currently missed out on (or been missed out on by) the first 2 asteroids in this list (2021 YQ and 2021 YX) which hurtled by Earth on January 5 at distances of 1.3 and 2.4 million miles, respectively.
Barringer Crater aerial photo. Credit: USGS
No, I didnt notice them either– and I study asteroids. There are a more 3 asteroids anticipated to pass in between 1 and 5 million miles from the Earth in the next couple of days, ranging in size from that of an automobile to that of the Statue of Liberty. The one that will get the closest will still be four times as far away as the Moon, so not precisely close calls.
Is Dont Look Up realistic?
Do not Look Up is an allegory, utilizing the internationally devastating impact of a “world killer” for the internationally devastating effect of environment modification. It is a tale of corruption, venality and political and corporate self-interest put ahead of the health and welfare of humankind. It is likewise very funny.
Without distributing too many spoilers, the plot focuses around 2 astronomers (a college student and her professor) who discover a comet that will clash with Earth in 6 months time. They attempt to inform the President of the United States (played gloriously by Meryl Streep), however she is more concerned with the mid-term elections.
The film pokes enjoyable at right-wing US politics, the influence of donations to political celebrations on policy (and politicians), the increasing capability for modern-day innovation to gather information about health, routines, and way of life and making use of that details by technology giants.
It does not satirize the science though: the discovery of the comet is (sort of) realistic. Which is as it should be, given that Amy Mainzer, Principal Investigator of NASAs NEOWISE asteroid tracking program, was scientific advisor to the production. In the film, the astronomers report their findings to the Planetary Defense Coordination Office, which, as the motion picture shows, is a genuine organization operated by NASA.
So is the film sensible? The Earth has actually been hit by big asteroids in the past– which is why there are no enormous dinosaurs wandering the planet today. And it is bombarded every day by tonnes of dust and meteorites. It is particular that a “world killer” is written in the future (though taking place at most when in 50 million years)– and this is taken far more seriously by worldwide governments than is shown in the movie.
There is a well-tested protocol for reporting brand-new asteroids and comets, which is how we understand about the ones passing close(ish) to Earth this month.
There are likewise plans to reduce the potential effects from an asteroid on crash course with the Earth. These typically depend on deflecting the asteroids course, as attempting to shoot it down last minute isnt practical– it would take excessive energy. The launch in November of NASAs DART mission, a technology-testing mission, will further help shed light on how to finest deflect asteroids threatening Earth.
Where Dont Look Up touches a nerve is the lack of preparedness for the emergency if (when) it finally takes place and the mitigation strategies have stopped working. Here I come back to the allegory for climate modification. There is no Plan B. In the film, the slogan Dont Look Up is a rejection that an approaching comet will ruin the planet– it is portrayed as phony news.
I thought it was a fantastic movie. It is not phony news.
Written by Monica Grady, Professor of Planetary and Space Sciences, The Open University.
This post was first published in The Conversation.