Climate modification and ongoing La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, half a world away, have contributed to the relentless dry weather condition and may bring more of it throughout the next rainy season.
Tropical countries within the Horn of Africa tend to have two rainy seasons: the gu in March, April, and May, and the deyr in October, November, and December. The 2020 and 2021 deyr seasons were both considerably drier than typical, and the 2021 gu likewise came up brief. Production of cereals throughout the 2021 deyr was reduced by 50 to 70 percent, while maize and sorghum production were down 15 to 25 percent in 2020 and 50 percent in 2021
With La Niña still dominating the conditions in the western Pacific– shown above in December 2021– and expected to persist through the very first couple of months of 2022, food security researchers fear there might be another stopped working gu rainy season ahead.
October– December 2021
More than 20 million people in Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia now deal with a few of the worst food security threats in 35 years.
Following three consecutive failed rainy seasons, more than 20 million individuals in eastern Africa now face some of the worst food security risks in 35 years. Climate and agriculture specialists are advising governments and relief agencies to anticipate a substantial need for food help in Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Environment change and ongoing La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, half a world away, have actually added to the relentless dry weather and may bring more of it during the next rainy season.
The cautions come from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), a program supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). FEWS NET assembles international and local analyses of food security (particularly conditions for farming and livestock husbandry) to help governments and relief firms plan for and respond to humanitarian crises. Numerous U.S firms support FEWS NET; NASA provides satellite imagery and climate and weather information.
Tropical countries within the Horn of Africa tend to have 2 rainy seasons: the gu in March, April, and May, and the deyr in October, November, and December. The 2020 and 2021 deyr seasons were both significantly drier than typical, and the 2021 gu also came up brief.
” These back-to-back blows are difficult for the farmers to take,” stated Ashutosh Limaye, a scientist at NASAs Marshall Space Flight Center and a close collaborator with the SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa Hub (a NASA-USAID cooperation). “We are heading into a dry season, and the seasonal outlook does not look favorable either. The difficulty is not just the soil moisture or the rains anomalies; it is the resilience of the population to drought.”
In its December 2021 report, FEWS NET declared: “A bad March-May 2022 season would lead to an unmatched (since 1981) sequence of four below-normal rainfall seasons … Even if March-April-May rains are normal, the region will experience sticking around long-term rains deficits.” Lots of locations in the Horn of Africa are expected to deal with “crisis” and “emergency” levels of food insecurity.
The map on the top left shows rainfall anomalies for the 2021 deyr season, or just how much rainfall was above or below average for the October through December period. Measurements come from the Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data set.
The map compares NDVI from December 2021 with the long-term average from 2000 to 2013. The data come from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASAs Terra satellite and the analysis comes from the USGS FEWS NET Data Portal.
Successive rain shortfalls in eastern Africa have actually had a cumulative effect: smaller crop harvests; scarcities of forage; depleted water materials; and depleted and deteriorated livestock herds. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported that at least 60,000 animals have been lost to starvation, and milk production is 80 percent below par. Production of cereals during the 2021 deyr was lowered by 50 to 70 percent, while maize and sorghum production were down 15 to 25 percent in 2020 and 50 percent in 2021
Present soil wetness forecasts from the NASA Hydrologic Analysis and Forecast System (NHyFAS) show there might be more reductions in soil moisture in the typical months. As the 2021 rainy season draws to a close, hot and dry air conditions and further drying soils, watering holes, and pasturelands.
The dire farming conditions have been intensified by the COVID-19 pandemic and by violent local disputes. East Africans are simultaneously handling increasing rates for commodities (in your area and globally) and with the loss of earnings from failed harvests and depleted animals. And the region still has not fully recovered from the losses of a deep dry spell in 2016-17.
December 1, 2021.
Researchers who study climate and weather condition teleconnections point to human-induced warming in the western Pacific and the continuous La Niña as causes of the problems in eastern Africa. With La Niña still controling the conditions in the western Pacific– shown above in December 2021– and anticipated to continue through the first few months of 2022, food security researchers fear there might be another failed gu rainy season ahead.
In their report, FEWS NET experts wrote: “A long sequence like this is really unusual, with the last perhaps being almost 40 years earlier throughout 1983-84. Given that 1983, the population of Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia has actually tripled, considerably increasing the variety of individuals exposed to dry spell dangers.”
” Climate modification, connecting with natural La Niñan environment conditions, has increased the frequency of droughts in this region,” said Chris Funk, director of the Climate Hazards Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara. “But utilizing the most recent generation of climate models, we can now anticipate– and have actually anticipated– many of the recent bad rainy seasons.”
” Satellites inform us that the 2021 October-December season resembled the devastating 2010 season, and our projection designs are recommending a high possibility of a March-May 2022 season comparable to 2011,” he included. “A poor March-May 2022 season would result in an unprecedented series of four below-normal rains seasons, which would further intensify the present humanitarian obstacles.”
NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using data from the Climate Hazards Center, the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS Net), and modified Copernicus Sentinel information (2021) processed by the European Space Agency thanks to Josh Willis/NASA/JPL-Caltech.