What if a 10 km (6.5 mile)- large asteroid was on a bee-line towards Earth, with an upcoming, calamitous effect simply 6 months away? It would vaporize part of the asteroids surface, producing an explosive thrust and a modification in velocity in reaction. Schweickart has emphasized that the technology required to divert an asteroid exists today.
Late last year, NASA released the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), the first-ever planetary defense test mission. It will show that a spacecraft can autonomously browse to and perform a kinetic effect on a fairly little target asteroid.
What if a 10 km (6.5 mile)- large asteroid was on a bee-line towards Earth, with an upcoming, calamitous effect just 6 months away? This was the scenario in the recent Netflix film, “Dont Look Up.” The movie has actually led numerous to question if we have the resources and technology available and ready today to prevent such a catastrophe.
A brand-new paper taking a look at the technical elements of such an endeavor says yes. Yes, we do.
” We reveal that humanity has crossed a technological threshold to prevent us from going the way of the dinosaurs,” composed Philip Lubin and Alex Cohen, researchers at the University of California Santa Barbara, in their paper published reecntly on Arxiv. “We reveal that mitigation is conceivable using existing technology, even with the short time scale of 6 months alerting.”
As a cautionary note, they added that the dinosaurs “never ever took a physics class and stopped working to fund planetary defense.”
Do Not Look Up (L to R) Leonardo DiCaprio as Dr. Randall Mindy, Jennifer Lawrence as Kate Dibiasky. Credit: Niko Tavernise/Netflix © 2021asteroid gif
Similar to posts weve released previously on Universe Today, this new paper takes a look at a number of various ways that have actually been designed to divert an asteroid, but they focus primarily on various explosive penetrators for the “Pulverize It” (PI) approach.
The duo concludes that the most efficient approach of crushing is utilizing little nuclear explosive gadgets (NED) in the penetrators. This, combined with soon-to-be-realized heavy lift launch possessions such as NASAs Space Launch System (SLS) or SpaceXs Starship (with in-orbit refueling) is sufficient to alleviate this existential danger.
This method would not totally obliterate an asteroid– which is virtually impossible for an asteroid that size. However it would vaporize part of the asteroids surface, producing an explosive thrust and a change in speed in response. This would alter the asteroids path, ideally diverting it from hitting our planet.
Artists impression of an asteroid influence on early Earth. Credit: SwRI/Don Davis
That we have the innovation offered today is in fact not a questionable opinion. We have gone over the topic with Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart– who assisted discovered the asteroid research organization B612. Schweickart has emphasized that the technology required to divert an asteroid exists today.
” That is, we do not have to go into a huge technology development program in order to deflect most asteroids that would posture a danger of effect,” he said, however added that the innovation had actually not been put together in a system style, or tested and demonstrated that it might really deflect an asteroid.
That is about to change. Late in 2015, NASA released the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), the first-ever planetary defense test objective. It will demonstrate that a spacecraft can autonomously browse to and carry out a kinetic impact on a relatively little target asteroid. If this is a feasible technique to deflect a truly dangerous asteroid, this will evaluate.
Artists impression of NASAs Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft speeding towards the smaller sized of the two bodies in the Didymos asteroid system. Credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
While a “world killer” event is rather unusual, of order once per 100 million years, it is likely a matter of when, not if.
The paper by Lubin and Cohen notes that a threat of this magnitude hitting the Earth at a closing speed of 40 km/s would have an impact energy of roughly 300 Teratons TNT, or about 40 thousand times bigger than the current combined nuclear arsenal of the whole world.
” This is comparable in energy to the KT extinction occasion that eliminated the dinosaurs some 66 million years back. Such an occasion, if not alleviated, would be an existential hazard to mankind,” they said. “We reveal that mitigation is conceivable utilizing existing technology, even with the short time scale of 6 months alerting, but that the effective coupling of the NED energy is important.
In an idea experiment, they also looked at what would be needed to divert an asteroid the size of Texas, roughly 830 km diameter. This has to do with the size of the dwarf world Ceres.
“You are going to need some pass away difficult to get you out of this one. A couple of options: a) celebration, b) move to Mars or the Moon to celebration, c) do what they did in Chicken Run during take-off.”
Joking aside, they stated the purpose of their paper was to reveal that even in fairly severe short-term warning cases we d have the ability to react, however only if we prepare– which Schweickart and B612 have consistently and vociferously advocated.
” Though the numbers may appear challenging, it is not outside the realm of possibility even at this point in human technological advancement,” Lubin and Cohen stated. “This offers us hope that a robust planetary defense system is possible for even brief notification existential risks such as we have laid out. Preferably, we would never ever remain in this scenario, however better ready than dead.”
Originally released on Universe Today.