A high-definition picture of the Mars Australe lava plain on the Moon taken by Japans Kaguya lunar orbiter in November 2007. Credit: JAXA/NHK
Last month, astronomers reported that a disposed of upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket, launched 7 years earlier, was on a clash with the Moon. The rocket in concern brought NASAs Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) to the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point, where the still-operating observatory offers advance caution on solar wind activities. The remaining rocket stage, meanwhile, became a floating piece of space scrap orbiting the Sun. Its ultimate fate was unknown, until last month, when astronomer Bill Gray forecasted that it was bound for an impact with the Moon sometime on March 4th, 2022.
Today, Gray, who has been tracking the things since, launched an upgrade on the scenario. He confirmed that there is certainly a rocket phase on course to crash into the far side of the Moon, however its not a SpaceX rocket at all. Instead, its a Chinese booster: the upper stage of the rocket that brought Chinas Chang e 5-T1 objective to the Moon in 2014.
Gray, who manages the near-Earth item tracking software application Pluto Project, described that the incorrect identification of the item as DSCOVRs upper stage back in 2015 was based on shaky evidence.
This animation features actual satellite images of the far side of the moon, illuminated by the sun, as it crosses in between the DSCOVR spacecrafts Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) and telescope, and the Earth– one million miles away. These images were captured on July 16, 2015. Credit: NASA/NOAA.
” Essentially,” he composed, “I had pretty great circumstantial proof for the identification, but absolutely nothing definitive. That was not at all unusual. Identifications of high-flying space junk often require a little bit of investigator work, and often, we never do figure out the ID for a bit of area junk; there are a couple of unidentified littles junk out there. (At least, not recognized yet.)”.
The detective work he d carried out was suggestive enough that he considered it a positive ID for the SpaceX rocket, and no one questioned it. That is, up until February 12, 2022, when Gray got an email from Jon Giorgini at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Giorgini explained that DSCOVRs preliminary trajectory did not pass especially close to the Moon, therefore it was odd that the upper stage Gray was tracking seemed to have actually gone ideal past it only 2 days after launch.
The e-mail triggered Gray to dig into his data and look for an alternative explanation for the item. If it wasnt the DSCOVR rocket after all, what was it? The only other object that fit the bill was the upper phase from Chinas Chang e 5-T1 objective (which was a test flight and precursor to Chinas effective 2020 lunar sample return objective, Chang e 5), which did pass nearby the Moon, five days after its own launch. A little digging by fellow object-tracking expert Jonathan McDowell offered trajectory data on one of Chang e 5-T1s CubeSats, which had actually taken a “ride-share” on the booster, and which lined up neatly with the path taken by the object.
So it appears conclusive that the things ready to hit the Moon is certainly the Chang e 5-T1 booster, though Gray confesses that when again, the evidence is inconclusive evidence. But its a pretty good match, and uses a better description for the item than the SpaceX booster ever did.
With the mystery fixed, the misidentified object has been rechristened, and is set for an amazing ending when it impacts the lunar regolith early next month.
This isnt the very first time a synthetic things has hit the Moon. This image shows the effect site of Apollo 16s S-IVB Booster, taken by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter in 2015. Credit: NASA/Goddard/Arizona State University.
The entire affair is somewhat trivial in the grand scheme of things, however it does raise some intriguing concerns about how area junk beyond low Earth orbit is tracked, and whether much better tools are needed to do so.
In deep area, there is really little official tracking of objects– most of the attention here is focused on asteroid-hunting to ensure that we are aware of any possible hazards to Earth. Human-made things in deep space are not systematically tracked.
As people venture back to the Moon in the coming decade, Gray recommends that it may be sensible to implement a more strenuous tracking system, and detailed a couple of steps to require to begin.
First, he suggests that launch service providers should make the last recognized trajectories of their boosters publicly offered. Second, they need to put some consideration into minimizing space junk, deorbiting utilized boosters where possible. Gray recommends that in the long run, a worldwide (and well-funded) company will most likely be needed to efficiently carry out exact item tracking.
Oh, and if youre questioning where the DSCOVR booster actually is– well, in the meantime, no one understands. Grays best guess is that its someplace in orbit around the Sun. Without active controls to keep it at the L1 Lagrange point, it will have likely drifted away to discover its own course through the Solar System.
If you want to see Grays description of the entire affair in his own words, you can read it here.
Originally released on Universe Today.
Its supreme fate was unidentified, till last month, when astronomer Bill Gray forecasted that it was bound for an effect with the Moon at some point on March 4th, 2022.
Giorgini pointed out that DSCOVRs preliminary trajectory did not pass particularly close to the Moon, and so it was odd that the upper phase Gray was tracking appeared to have actually gone right past it just two days after launch.
The email triggered Gray to dig into his data and look for an alternative explanation for the object. The only other object that fit the costs was the upper phase from Chinas Chang e 5-T1 objective (which was a test flight and precursor to Chinas effective 2020 lunar sample return objective, Chang e 5), which did pass close by the Moon, 5 days after its own launch. Gray recommends that in the long run, a worldwide (and well-funded) organization will most likely be needed to efficiently bring out exact object tracking.
