Composite image of the Suns surface on 6/21/22. AR3038 can be seen in the upper right. Credit: NOAAs Space Weather Forecast Office
Sunspots are normally not a cause for concern, even if they double in size overnight and grow to be two times the size of the Earth itself. Thats exactly what occurred with Active Region 3038 (AR3038), a sunspot that happens to be dealing with Earth and might produce some minor solar flares. While theres no reason to stress, it does indicate a potentially amazing occasion could happen– incredible auroras.
Astrophysicists consistently point out that sunspots like AR3038 posture no danger to individuals, that does not stop the popular media from writing scary headlines about them, especially ones that seem to grow rapidly. But sunspots like this are all par for the course, according to Rob Steenburgh, the head of the United Statess National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Forecast Office..
He mentions that this kind of rapid development is precisely what we anticipate to see at this point in the solar cycle, the 11-year duplicating pattern that started once again in 2019. He also explains that sunspots of this kind do not generally produce the types of dangerous solar flares that could knock out satellites or disrupt power grids. It just does not have the intricacy.
Thats exactly what happened with Active Region 3038 (AR3038), a sunspot that occurs to be dealing with Earth and might release some minor solar flares. He also points out that sunspots of this kind do not normally produce the types of unsafe solar flares that might knock out satellites or interfere with power grids. Solar flares happen when the magnetic fields surrounding a sunspot break and rejoin in complicated patterns, some of which cause flairs to be ejected out into the solar system. It doesnt look like any of those flares will be directed at Earth, as AR3038 has actually rotated back out of view and is no longer facing us. There might still be a chance of some amazing auroras if the world takes place to be in the path of one of those C-class flares.
Universe Today video explaining when we must be fretted about solar flares.
Solar flares happen when the electromagnetic fields surrounding a sunspot break and rejoin in intricate patterns, some of which cause styles to be ejected out into the solar system. If these hit the Earth, they could possibly trigger damage to some infrastructure, specifically those reliant on electrical power. They are much more likely to create magnificent auroras when their ions struck Earths own magnetic field.
They are rated in severity, scaling from B (the weakest) to X, m, and c (the greatest). X flares have their own grading system, and the most effective solar flares, X20, occur less than once per 11-year solar cycle and generally do not face Earth.
The possibility of an X20 forming due to AR3038 is minuscule, though there was a 10% opportunity of it creating a less effective X flare. Most likely are M flares, which AR3038 has a 25% chance of developing before it wanes in size and scale, as sunspots typically do.
Video on the most violent solar storm in history– The Carrington Event.
It doesnt look like any of those flares will be directed at Earth, as AR3038 has actually rotated back out of view and is no longer facing us. There is another active area, AR3040, which had 6 C-class flares in the last 24 hours. So there might still be a chance of some spectacular auroras if the planet happens to be in the course of one of those C-class flares.
If not, the entire episode with the quick development of AR3038 will show another example of the public being generally worried about what seems a threatening turn of events, however which is even innocuous and quite common. With all the equipment presently set up to keep track of the Sun, the public can feel confident that well have at least some caution before any possibly destructive flare impacts our Earth-bound systems. But it may be a while before that happens, so dont hold your breath.
Initially published on Universe Today.