By Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
October 30, 2022
ENSO rarely preserves for long in either its cold stage (La Niña) or warm phase (El Niño). Since the turn of the current century, 3 circumstances of so-called “double dip” La Niñan events have occurred, in 2007– 09, 2010– 12, and 2020– 22.
The 2 opposite stages, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require particular changes in both the ocean and the environment since ENSO is a paired environment phenomenon. La Niña: A cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average sea surface area temperature levels (SST), in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. There are some circumstances when the ocean can look like it is in an El Niño or La Niña state, but the atmosphere is not playing along (or vice versa).
El Niño: A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface area temperatures (SST), in the eastern and main tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, rains tends to become decreased while rains increases over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The low-level surface area winds, which typically blow from east to west along the equator (” easterly winds”), instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing in the other instructions (from west to east or “westerly winds”).
La Niña: A cooling of the ocean surface area, or below-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the main and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, rains tends to increase while rainfall decreases over the central tropical Pacific Ocean. The typical easterly winds along the equator become even stronger.
Neutral: Neither El Niño or La Niña. Typically tropical Pacific SSTs are normally near average. There are some instances when the ocean can look like it is in an El Niño or La Niña state, but the atmosphere is not playing along (or vice versa).
” This would be the first third-year La Niña because the 1998– 2001 event, which was the just such occasion observed because 1980,” discusses Dr. Xianghui Fang from Fudan University, China.
By examining the status of the environment– ocean system over the tropical Pacific in March 2022, Fang and his collaborator, Prof. Fei Zheng, from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, found that the equatorial main to eastern Pacific was still maintaining cooler conditions than normal, and the southeasterly winds over the equatorial Pacific were appreciable.
The group evaluated the possible contributions of 4 physical aspects related to the thermocline (the limit in between warmer ocean water at the surface and cooler water listed below) and surface winds in this possible third-year La Niña. Historically, the atmospheric variables in spring 2022 suggest the southerly and easterly winds will reach their biggest amplitude since 1980, which supports the development of a third-year La Niña.
The team further talks about the possible global environment effects of this impending third-year La Niñan occasion in a News & & Views short article published ahead of time in Atmospheric Sciences. Particularly, they take a look at the only two other comparable events in history, in 1973– 1976 and 1998– 2001, and, based upon the distinctions and resemblances, conclude that there is much unpredictability in anticipating the climatic results of the present occasion, both in regards to summertime precipitation and winter temperature.
” Nonetheless, we should understand the risk of extreme cold surges in Eurasia, which could likewise produce more cold extremes either in northeastern or eastern China,” Fang alerts.
Recommendation: “Will the Historic Southeasterly Wind over the Equatorial Pacific in March 2022 Trigger a Third-year La Niña Event?” by Xianghui Fang, Fei Zheng, Kexin Li, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Hongli Ren, Jie Wu, Xingrong Chen, Weiren Lan, Yuan Yuan, Licheng Feng, Qifa Cai and Jiang Zhu, 26 July 2022, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.DOI: 10.1007/ s00376-022-2147-6.
Essentials of El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Though ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states, or stages, it can be in. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” need certain modifications in both the ocean and the environment due to the fact that ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” remains in the middle of the continuum.
Arctic sea smoke near Qingdao, China on January 7th, 2021 when cold surge hit northern China. A result of freezing air death over reasonably warm water, the phenomenon is rare, even in the Arctic. Credit: Shaoqing Wang
El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular routine variation in winds and sea surface temperature levels over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that impacts the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. This natural phenomenon is essential to study due to the fact that of the socioeconomic effects it can have on seriously important international concerns such as food security, agricultural production, human health, and water resources, to call but a few.
ENSO hardly ever keeps for long in either its cold stage (La Niña) or warm phase (El Niño). Historically, it has a strong preference to peak throughout boreal winter and rapidly decay in spring (called “phase-locking”), with quasi-periodic oscillations of 2– 7 years. Because the turn of the existing century, three instances of so-called “double dip” La Niñan occasions have actually happened, in 2007– 09, 2010– 12, and 2020– 22.
This succession of double-dip La Niñan occasions is intriguing enough in itself; and now, based on updated information from several organizations released in April 2022, it appears that the existing occasion is likely to continue through the boreal summer season and fall of 2022, recommending a strong possibility of a third-year La Niña lasting from 2020-23.
