The new paper argues that the commonly accepted theory from astrophysicist Brandon Carter used defective reasoning.
According to a recent paper by a mathematics professor at the University of Arkansas, the presence of life on Earth offers evidence that abiogenesis is reasonably simple on worlds comparable to Earth, refuting the “Carter argument” conclusion.
Does the existence of life on Earth offer any insight into the probability that abiogenesis– the procedure by which life first emerges from inorganic substances– happens elsewhere? That is a concern that has actually baffled researchers for a while, along with everybody else inclined to think about it.
Daniel Whitmire. Credit: University of Arkansas
Astrophysicist Brandon Carter makes the commonly accepted claim that the selection effect of our own presence restricts our ability to observe. Absolutely nothing can be concluded about the possibility of life existing somewhere else based upon the fact that we needed to end up on a planet where abiogenesis happened.
“Easy” suggests no birth control was used. In each case, Whitmire designates values to these proposals.
Whitmire continues, “However, my presence is old evidence and must be dealt with. The presence of life on Earth is old evidence and just like in the conception analogy the likelihood that abiogenesis is easy is much more probable.”
He claimed that understanding life on this earth had, at best, neutral worth. Another method to look at it is to say that since Earth wasnt picked at random from the group of all Earth-like planets, it cant be viewed as a common Earth-like world.
A recent paper by retired astrophysicist and University of Arkansas mathematics instructor Daniel Whitmire argues that Carters logic was flawed. Whitmire competes that Carters theory suffers from “The Old Evidence Problem” in Bayesian Confirmation Theory, which is utilized to upgrade a theory or hypothesis in light of brand-new proof, in spite of the fact that it has actually gotten extensive approval.
After offering a few examples of how this formula is utilized to calculate possibilities and what function old proof plays, Whitmire relies on what he calls the conception analogy.
As he explains, “One might argue, like Carter, that I exist despite whether my conception was simple or tough, therefore absolutely nothing can be presumed about whether my conception was tough or easy from my existence alone.”
In this example, “difficult” indicates birth control was used. “Easy” indicates no birth control was utilized. In each case, Whitmire appoints values to these proposals.
Whitmire continues, “However, my presence is old proof and must be dealt with. The existence of life on Earth is old evidence and simply like in the conception analogy the likelihood that abiogenesis is simple is much more likely.”
In other words, the proof of life on Earth is not of neutral worth in making the case for life on comparable planets. As such, our life suggests that life is most likely to emerge on other Earth-like worlds– perhaps even on the current “super-Earth” type planet, LP 890-9b, discovered 100 light years away.
Reference: “Abiogenesis: the Carter argument reevaluated” by Daniel P. Whitmire, 23 September 2022, International Journal of Astrobiology.DOI: 10.1017/ S1473550422000350.