In a study simply published in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers led by Johannes Sutter of the Climate and Environmental Physics Division (KUP) at the Institute of Physics and the Oeschger Center for Climate Research at the University of Bern examine the concern of whether the melting of ice in West Antarctica might be avoided by synthetically influencing solar radiation. The scientists also warn of unforeseeable negative effects of geoengineering.
Avoiding a crucial environment tipping point
” The window of opportunity to limit the global temperature level boost to listed below 2 degrees is closing quick,” says ice modeling expert Johannes Sutter, “so it is possible that technical procedures to influence the environment will be seriously considered in the future.” That is why, he says, it is needed to use theoretical designs to study the effects and risks of “solar radiation management.” Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is a term utilized to describe different methods of blocking solar radiation in order to make the Earth cooler.
A crucial factor for the increased interest in geoengineering is the avoidance of tipping points at which the environment might alter abruptly and irreversibly. These consist of the melting of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and the associated meter-high sea level increase. “Observations of ice flows in West Antarctica suggest that we are really close to a so-called tipping point or have actually already passed it,” explains Johannes Sutter, “with our study, we, therefore, wished to discover out whether a collapse of the ice sheet might theoretically be prevented with solar radiation management.”
Synthetically dimming the sun
Particularly, Sutter and his associates have examined what would take place if so-called aerosols– suspended particles in a gas– presented into the stratosphere succeeded in obstructing solar radiation from the earth– a dimming of the sun, so to speak. Far, research has focused on the worldwide effects of solar radiation management (SRM). The Bern study is the very first to use ice model simulations to reveal what result such a measure would have on the Antarctic ice sheet. The research study takes a look at the possible advancement of the ice sheet under various future greenhouse gas circumstances and yields differentiated outcomes: If emissions continue unabated and the SRM occurs in the middle of this century, the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be delayed somewhat, but not avoided. In a medium emissions situation, SRM deployed by mid-century could show to be an “efficient tool” to slow or perhaps avoid ice sheet collapse.
According to the design computations, SRM works best when it takes place as early as possible and is integrated with ambitious climate mitigation measures. The study authors highlight, “Our simulations show that the most efficient method to avoid the long-term collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is fast decarbonization.” The chances of a longer-term steady ice sheet are greatest if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced to net zero “without hold-up.”
Possible negative effects are still hardly studied
How should one picture a dimming of the sun in practical terms? According to Johannes Sutter, a whole fleet of extremely high-flying airplanes would have to spread out millions of lots of aerosols in the stratosphere. This technical intervention in the environment would have to be preserved without disturbance and for centuries. If the intervention were stopped as long as the greenhouse concentration in the environment stayed high, the temperature level on Earth would rapidly rise by several degrees.
The repercussions of such a termination shock, Johannes Sutter explains, are only one of the possible dangers positioned by SRM. The possible adverse effects are still insufficiently looked into and variety from a shift in the monsoon program to modifications in ocean and atmospheric blood circulation. Ocean acidification would also continue. Vital voices likewise caution against political and social impacts: The usage of methods such as solar dimming might lead to climate security steps being decreased or perhaps prevented.
Thomas Stocker, professor of environment and ecological physics at the University of Bern and co-author of the study, says: “Geoengineering would be another international experiment and a potentially harmful human intervention in the climate system, which must in any case be avoided according to Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.”
Recommendation: “Climate intervention on a high-emissions path could postpone however not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet death” by J. Sutter, A. Jones, T. L. Frölicher, C. Wirths and T. F. Stocker, 10 August 2023, Nature Climate Change.DOI: 10.1038/ s41558-023-01738-w.
Technical techniques that synthetically affect the environment have been discussed for some time under the term geoengineering. “Observations of ice flows in West Antarctica indicate that we are really close to a so-called tipping point or have already passed it,” discusses Johannes Sutter, “with our study, we, for that reason, wanted to find out whether a collapse of the ice sheet might in theory be avoided with solar radiation management.”
The Bern study is the very first to use ice model simulations to show what impact such a measure would have on the Antarctic ice sheet. The study takes a look at the possible development of the ice sheet under various future greenhouse gas scenarios and yields differentiated results: If emissions continue unabated and the SRM occurs in the middle of this century, the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet might be delayed rather, but not prevented. Important voices likewise caution against political and social effects: The use of strategies such as solar dimming might lead to climate protection steps being slowed down or even avoided.
Researchers examined if “dimming the sun” through geoengineering might prevent the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Outcomes suggest that while it may delay melting, the best long-term service is rapid decarbonization, and geoengineering has high risks and prospective unpredicted repercussions.
Utilizing geoengineering strategies, the climate might in theory be artificially influenced and cooled.
Researchers from Bern have now checked out the feasibility of stopping the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet through synthetic solar dimming. Their findings indicate that artificial influence will not work without decarbonization, and it includes considerable dangers.
Exists an emergency solution that could stop climate change? Technical approaches that synthetically affect the climate have actually been discussed for some time under the term geoengineering. Nevertheless, most of environment scientists have actually been vital of them: high dangers, incalculable consequences for future generations.
