Wetter conditions are expected in the southern United States and the Horn of Africa and drier conditions are likely over southern Africa, Latin America, Australia, and parts of southeastern Asia.
El Niños disturbances to worldwide rains patterns may increase food insecurity, with regions like southern Africa being especially susceptible. FEWS NETs analysis aids in understanding the extent of potential effects and directing aid efforts.
Shifting rainfall patterns are forecasted to leave countless individuals without consistent access to food in late 2023 and early 2024.
The ongoing El Niño is interrupting rainfall patterns across the world, with blended repercussions for food production. Excessive rain in some locations, and too little in others, is projected to affect crop yields and leave 110 million individuals in requirement of food support, according to scientists who are part of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).
El Niño is a natural environment phenomenon defined by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This cyclical warming of surface waters functions like a boulder in the middle of a stream, disrupting atmospheric blood circulation in ways that shift rainfall patterns. Wetter conditions are expected in the southern United States and the Horn of Africa and drier conditions are likely over southern Africa, Latin America, Australia, and parts of southeastern Asia.
The map above, developed by FEWS NET partners, shows the forecasted effect of El Niño on key commodity crops, consisting of wheat, maize (corn), rice, soybean, and sorghum. Based on Anderson and colleagues analysis of historic crop yields, El Niño is most likely to bring poor maize yields in southern Africa and Central America due to dry spell. Negative impacts of El Niño are normally strongest within southeastern areas of Africa, consisting of in Zimbabwe, southern Zambia, southern and central Mozambique, and northeastern South Africa. In previous El Niño years, maize production in Zimbabwe and South Africa saw typical deficits of 10 to 15 percent relative to expected yields.
Expected Effects of Current El Niño Event
This years El Niño event, which is forecast to continue getting strength through the end of 2023 before it dissipates by mid-2024, is expected to contribute to high levels of food insecurity in certain areas. The map above, developed by FEWS NET partners, shows the predicted effect of El Niño on key commodity crops, including wheat, maize (corn), soybean, sorghum, and rice. The map was based upon an analysis of historic crop yields and climate information from 1961 to 2020. Researchers from NASA Harvest and NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center, NOAA, the University of Maryland, and the University of California Santa Barbaras Climate Hazards Center contributed to the development of the map.
” El Niño occasions are estimated to impact crop yields on a minimum of a quarter of international croplands,” stated Weston Anderson, an assistant research study researcher with the FEWS NET science team. “And while theres uncertainty in how crop yields will be affected this year, due to the fact that they differ from one El Niño event to another, we understand how the dice are filled.”
Based on Anderson and coworkers analysis of historic crop yields, El Niño is most likely to bring bad maize yields in southern Africa and Central America due to dry spell. Wheat yields in Australia and rice yields in Southeast Asia are also normally lowered. On average, worldwide soybean yields enhance throughout an El Niño event. Meanwhile, above-average rains is anticipated to facilitate the steady recovery from three-year droughts in much of the Horn of Africa and Afghanistan.
Significance of FEWS NET Analysis and Regional Focus
FEWS NET food security analysts establish scenarios of how local rains deficits or surpluses could impact crop yields, and in turn food security, and use this details to help the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) comprehend food support and humanitarian requirements. This work is especially type in areas where many individuals rely on growing their own crops to fulfill their daily requirements.
Forecast of soil wetness conditions in southern Africa for December 2023.
This is the case in some countries in southern Africa, which was determined as an area of issue in a current FEWS NET release. Negative effects of El Niño are normally strongest within southeastern locations of Africa, consisting of in Zimbabwe, southern Zambia, main and southern Mozambique, and northeastern South Africa. Throughout past years with a moderate to strong El Niño, these areas have often gotten below-normal rains and above-average daytime temperatures throughout the crucial months of the growing season.
The map above shows a projection of soil moisture conditions in southern Africa for December 2023. These soil moisture forecasts allow analysts to track how the current El Niño and its impact on crops is developing relative to expectations.
Maize is the single most essential cereal crop in southern Africa, representing nearly 70 percent of the regions cereal production. In previous El Niño years, maize production in Zimbabwe and South Africa saw typical deficits of 10 to 15 percent relative to expected yields. Some years saw deficits of over 50 percent, resulting in sharp, local food price spikes. In southern Madagascar, 2023 maize harvests have actually currently carried out badly due to cyclone events and irregular rainfall.
NASA Earth Observatory maps by Michala Garrison, using Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data on crop yield effects, which are based on FAOSTAT country-level crop yields, and projection soil moisture percentile data for southern Africa from FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation (FLDAS).