Research from Northumbria University exposes a crucial window to prevent irreparable Antarctic ice loss. While existing models show no tipping point reached yet, future circumstances suggest possible ice sheet collapse within 300-500 years, highlighting the urgency of dealing with climate change. Credit: TiPACCNew research from Northumbria University suggests that there is a limited time frame before irreversible, large-scale ice loss starts in Antarctica.According to 2 current research studies from Northumbria University, theres a restricted window of time to prevent permanent and massive melting of Antarctic ice.These findings, published in The Cryosphere journal, mark the initially thorough analysis to determine if the Antarctic ice sheet has crossed a threshold of irreversible decline.The continuous ice loss in Antarctica has raised issues that the West Antarctic ice sheet may currently be destabilized and past the point of no return. Nevertheless, scientists have now systematically examined this question and found there is no evidence that it has actually already reached its tipping point.Modeling Studies Offer HopeThe modeling research study– performed by Northumbria University and numerous research study institutions throughout Europe– utilized 3 different computer models to run a series of simulations to carry out a thorough examination trying to find indications of irreparable retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet in its present form.Authors of the study say whilst ice loss in Antarctica will continue in the future, these results offer slight hope that it may still be possible to prevent or postpone crossing the tipping point, if urgent action is taken.Dr Emily Hill, Research Fellow at Northumbria University and report co-author, stated: “The implications are profound. We utilized 3 various numerical designs which all revealed that we have not yet crossed a tipping point that results in irreparable ice loss in Antarctica.”Using numerous models makes our findings even more persuading, and it is reassuring to understand that we have not yet passed the climax.” Prospective Future ScenariosHowever, the researchers likewise ran hypothetical simulations to investigate how the ice sheet may develop if present environment conditions stay as they are. They discovered that even with no additional global warming, a permanent collapse of some marine areas of West Antarcticas ice sheet is possible in the future.One of their designs shows the earliest that this could occur is within 300-500 years under current conditions, warning that accelerating climate modification is likely to reduce this timescale further.Global Implications of Antarctic Ice LossAntarcticas ice masses shop adequate water to raise sea levels by a number of meters around the globe and remain one of the biggest uncertainties in future projections of the effects of climate change.Dr Ronja Reese, Vice-Chancellors Fellow at Northumbria University and report co-author, said: “Accelerated ice loss at the margins of the ice sheet might indicate a collapse of larger marine areas. Our experiments show that an irreparable collapse in some marine areas in West Antarctica is possible for the current climate conditions.”Importantly, this collapse is not happening yet, as our very first study reveals, and it develops over thousands of years. However we would expect that further climate warming in the future will speed this up considerably.”The research study forms part of a major ₤ 4 million EU-funded research study on Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components (TiPACCs) combining specialists from the UK, Norway, Germany and France to investigate the likelihood of abrupt changes in the movement of ice in the Antarctic region.Petra Langebroek, Research Director at the Norwegian Research Centre (NORCE), and Scientific Coordinator of the European TiPACCs Project, stated: “I am really proud to see this work released. This tight partnership across various European institutes has led to major progress in our understanding of Antarctic ice sheet stability and tipping points.”This is somewhat excellent news. We have not yet crossed these tipping point in Antarctica, which– in theory– suggests that the ongoing ice loss can be decreased and even stopped. Our research study likewise reveals that with continuous climate change, we are headed to crossing tipping points in West Antarctica.”Northumbria University is home to among the worlds leading groups in the studies of the interactions between ice sheets and oceans. The team of researchers are working to check out the future of ice sheets and glaciers worldwide in a warming world. This includes understanding the reasons for continuous changes in Antarctica, Greenland, and alpine locations, in addition to evaluating future changes and resulting influence on human environments globally.References:”The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines– Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales can not be omitted” by Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek and Ricarda Winkelmann, 7 September 2023, The Cryosphere.DOI: 10.5194/ tc-17-3761-2023″The stability of contemporary Antarctic grounding lines– Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry” by Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler and Petra M. Langebroek, 77 September 2023, The Cryosphere.DOI: 10.5194/ tc-17-3739-2023Watch this video to discover more about the TiPACCSs research study into tipping points in Antarctica.
Credit: TiPACCNew research study from Northumbria University suggests that there is a restricted time frame before irreversible, large-scale ice loss begins in Antarctica.According to 2 recent research studies from Northumbria University, theres a restricted window of time to avoid irreversible and large-scale melting of Antarctic ice.These findings, published in The Cryosphere journal, mark the initially detailed analysis to determine if the Antarctic ice sheet has actually crossed a threshold of irreversible decline.The ongoing ice loss in Antarctica has raised concerns that the West Antarctic ice sheet might already be destabilized and past the point of no return. Scientists have now methodically evaluated this concern and discovered there is no proof that it has actually already reached its tipping point.Modeling Studies Offer HopeThe modeling study– brought out by Northumbria University and several research study organizations throughout Europe– utilized 3 various computer system models to run a series of simulations to perform an extensive inspection looking for indications of irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet in its present form.Authors of the study state whilst ice loss in Antarctica will continue in the future, these outcomes offer slight hope that it may still be possible to prevent or postpone crossing the tipping point, if urgent action is taken.Dr Emily Hill, Research Fellow at Northumbria University and report co-author, said: “The implications are profound. They discovered that even with no extra worldwide warming, an irreparable collapse of some marine areas of West Antarcticas ice sheet is possible in the future.One of their models reveals the earliest that this could take place is within 300-500 years under existing conditions, cautioning that accelerating environment change is likely to shorten this timescale further.Global Implications of Antarctic Ice LossAntarcticas ice masses shop sufficient water to raise sea levels by several meters around the world and stay one of the greatest uncertainties in future projections of the results of climate change.Dr Ronja Reese, Vice-Chancellors Fellow at Northumbria University and report co-author, said: “Accelerated ice loss at the margins of the ice sheet might indicate a collapse of bigger marine areas.