Rainfall in Southern Africa throughout the month of February 2024, as a percent of regular (from 1981-2024). Among the driest growing seasons in years has decimated crops and left millions hungry.An extended drought in southern Africa in early 2024 burnt crops and threatened food security for millions of individuals. The dry spell has actually been fueled in large part by the continuous El Niño, which shifted rains patterns during the growing season.Impact on Rainfall and AgricultureFrom late January through mid-March, parts of Southern Africa received half or less of their normal rainfall, according to scientists at the Climate Hazards Center (CHC) at the University of California, Santa Barbara. February 2024 was particularly dry. The map above reveals the quantity of rains during that month, as a percent of normal (from 1981-2024). The map is based on the Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation with Station information (CHIRPS). Rainfall would generally be greatest from December through February. However CHC scientists analyzing CHIRPS information discovered that February 2024 was the driest February in the 40-year information record for an area spanning much of Zambia, Zimbabwe, southeastern Angola, and northern Botswana.The parched conditions came at a critical time when crops require sufficient supply of water for growth and to produce grain. Inadequate rain and heats led to crop failure in several nations. By the end of February, maize (corn) crops had actually withered and passed away on 1 million hectares in central and southern Zambia– nearly half of the countrys maize-growing area.The drought also affected livestock. Over 9,000 drought-related cattle deaths were reported in Zimbabwe, and over 1.4 million cattle are considered at high danger of drought conditions and death due to a lack of pasture and water.Monitoring and ForecastsResearchers at the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) have actually been tracking rainfall and crop conditions in southern Africa throughout the growing season, which ranges from about November to April. FEWS NET is a program supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in partnership with other companies, consisting of NASA.March 2024The map above programs soil moisture conditions at the root zone– a quote of how much water is available for crops– in southern Africa for March 2024. Orange and red areas illustrate deficits in soil wetness. Data for the map come from the FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System, which uses observational datasets and seasonal environment forecasts to offer regular monthly forecasts of hydrological conditions appropriate to food security in Africa and the Middle East.Maize is the single most essential cereal crop in southern Africa, representing a bulk of the regions cereal production and 21 percent of the average individuals diet. Its success or failure can affect the amount of food offered. FEWS NET specialists estimated in March 2024 that millions of individuals dealt with “crisis level” food insecurity in Zimbabwe, Malawi, central Mozambique, and Madagascar. This level implies that households are not able to satisfy their minimum food needs without looking for humanitarian food assistance or taking extreme steps such as selling necessary assets.Before the 2024 growing season, FEWS NET scientists had identified southern Africa as an area of issue. An October 2023 report cited past research revealing that throughout years with a moderate to strong El Niño, the area has actually often seen below-normal rains and above-average daytime temperatures during key months of the growing season, reducing yields of maize.”Based on our modeling and previous research study on El Niño and crop yields, we were able to release advanced caution of this drought back in the fall of 2023,” stated Amy McNally, a FEWS NET researcher based at NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center.Scientists with FEWS NET and the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning shared the 2024 growing season forecast with humanitarian aid companies, bringing attention to the potential drought, lowered crop harvests, and worsening of already inflated maize prices. “This permitted USAIDs Bureau of Humanitarian Assistance to aim to have emergency food assistance resources allocated ahead of time,” McNally said.Response and Future ProjectionsFalling crop harvests and water shortages resulted in Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe stating national disasters. Water for drinking and cooking has actually ended up being scarcer as the area deals with a continuous cholera outbreak.The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has forecast dry conditions and below-normal rains till June 2024 for much of southern Africa. Numerous farmers in the area are either in or approaching the time of crop harvest, so the full impacts of the failed season are yet to be felt.Although there might be no relief on the horizon for crop production in the near term, next year might have more favorable conditions. The April ENSO projection shows that there is an 85 percent probability of a La Niña developing in late 2024 and early 2025, which is often related to above-normal precipitation and above-normal or normal maize yields in southern Africa.NASA Earth Observatory images by Wanmei Liang, using information from the Climate Hazards Center, at the University of California, Santa Barbara. FEWS NET data on drought and food insecurity are offered on their data website; FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System data items can likewise be accessed through NASAs website and the NASA Giovanni portal.
One of the driest growing seasons in years has decimated crops and left millions hungry.An extended dry spell in southern Africa in early 2024 sweltered crops and threatened food security for millions of individuals. FEWS NET is a program supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in partnership with other agencies, consisting of NASA.March 2024The map above shows soil wetness conditions at the root zone– a quote of how much water is offered for crops– in southern Africa for March 2024.”Based on our modeling and previous research on El Niño and crop yields, we were able to issue advanced warning of this drought back in the fall of 2023,” stated Amy McNally, a FEWS NET scientist based at NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center.Scientists with FEWS NET and the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning shared the 2024 growing season forecast with humanitarian help organizations, bringing attention to the potential dry spell, decreased crop harvests, and exacerbation of currently pumped up maize costs. Lots of farmers in the area are either in or approaching the time of crop harvest, so the complete effects of the stopped working season are yet to be felt.Although there may be no relief on the horizon for crop production in the near term, next year may have more beneficial conditions.