Lung cancer, often called a silent killer, haunts millions of people worldwide. Year after year, it takes more than a million lives — most of them victims of a singular and preventable habit: smoking. Now, a group of researchers says it may have an answer to stop the carnage — targeting the next generation.
A new study suggests that banning tobacco sales to people born between 2006 and 2010 could prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths by the end of the century.
This simulation conducted by researchers from the University of Santiago de Compostela, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and global collaborators is the first of its kind in global scope.
Thinking of future generations
The numbers are staggering. Every year, 1.8 million people die from lung cancer, and over two-thirds of these deaths are directly tied to smoking. The study’s lead author, Dr. Julia Rey Brandariz, pointed out that the research highlights “how much there is to gain for governments considering ambitious plans toward creating a tobacco-free generation.”
Brandariz emphasized the dual benefits of saving lives and easing the financial burden on health systems. Lung cancer treatment is costly and often lengthy, placing immense pressure on public health services, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
New Zealand recently introduced legislation aimed at creating a tobacco-free generation by banning the sale of tobacco products to anyone born after 2009. Although this initiative was eventually repealed, it marked an important step in rethinking how countries address smoking-related deaths.
The researchers modeled what would happen if a generation never had the chance to pick up a cigarette. Using historical data, they analyzed lung cancer death rates across 82 countries and applied their findings to 185 nations using global statistics from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database.
The results were clear. If people born between 2006 and 2010 (currently underage) never smoke, 1.2 million lung cancer deaths could be avoided. That’s 40% of the total lung cancer deaths expected to occur in this group by 2095. Among men, nearly half of the expected deaths (45.8%) could be prevented, while for women, the figure stands at 30.9%.
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Tobacco-free youth across the world
“For governments considering ambitious plans toward creating a tobacco-free generation, our modeling highlights how much there is to gain,” says Dr. Julia Rey Brandariz, a researcher from the University of Santiago de Compostela and the study’s lead author. “Not only could this save huge numbers of lives, it could massively reduce the strain on health systems.”
But the potential impact isn’t distributed evenly across the globe. Most of the lives saved would be in low- and middle-income countries, where smoking rates remain high, and younger populations are particularly at risk. The study estimates that two-thirds of the avoided deaths would occur in these countries.
For men, the biggest reduction would be in Central and Eastern Europe, while for women, Western Europe would see the greatest benefit.
“Lung cancer remains a leading cause of death, particularly in low- and middle-income countries,” said Dr. Isabelle Soerjomataram of the IARC. “Smoking is still very common in many of these regions, so banning tobacco sales could have an even greater impact.”
Not as easy as it sounds
While the idea of a tobacco-free generation is compelling, it doesn’t come without its challenges. Bans on smoking may lead to the rise of black markets — as happens with every prohibition — and enforcement could prove difficult.
“The ban won’t eliminate all smoking,” the researchers acknowledge, “but even with partial success, the health benefits would be profound.”
Then there’s the issue of banning such a powerful industry, with huge resources to lobby in their favor against such a ban. New Zealand is still discussing the tobacco ban bill, but its sudden repeal was suspicious.
Another issue lies in data availability. Lung cancer predictions were based on 82 countries, leaving some regions without comprehensive data. As a result, the estimates for certain low-income nations may be either over- or underestimated.
Moreover, the study did not account for the rise of e-cigarettes, which has changed the landscape of smoking in recent years. This could influence future lung cancer rates, as vaping is still relatively new. As such, its long-term health effects are not yet fully understood.
Despite these uncertainties, the potential payoff is huge. If governments take action now, the future could see a dramatic reduction in lung cancer deaths, especially among younger generations who would never take up smoking in the first place.
As Dr. Brandariz concludes, “Not only could this save huge numbers of lives, but it could massively reduce the strain on health systems of treating and caring for people in ill health as a result of smoking.”
The findings appeared in the journal The Lancet Public Health.
