The worldwide CREDO (Cosmic Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory) task is a virtual cosmic ray observatory, available to all, that gathers and processes information not only from advanced scientific detectors, but likewise from a big number of smaller sized detectors, amongst which the CMOS sensors in smartphones are blazing a trail (to turn a smart device into a cosmic ray detector, simply install the totally free CREDO Detector app). Among CREDOs main jobs is to keep an eye on worldwide modifications in the flux of secondary cosmic radiation reaching the surface of our world. This radiation is produced in the Earths stratosphere most intensely within the so-called Regener-Pfotzer maximum, where particles of primary cosmic radiation clash with the gas molecules of our environment and start waterfalls of secondary particles.
” At first glimpse, the concept that there is a link between earthquakes and cosmic radiation, in its main form reaching us mainly from the Sun and deep space, may appear strange. However, its physical foundations are totally rational,” highlights Dr. Piotr Homola (IFJ PAN and AstroCeNT CAMK PAN), organizer of CREDO and first author of the post describing the discovery in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.
Hence, if large earthquakes were associated with disturbances in the flows of matter that drive the Earths dynamo, these disturbances would alter the magnetic field, which in turn would impact the tracks of the particles of main cosmic radiation in a manner that depends on the dynamics of the disruptions inside our planet. As a result, ground-based detectors must see some modifications in the numbers of secondary cosmic ray particles spotted.
CREDO physicists evaluated cosmic ray intensity information from 2 stations of the Neutron Monitor Database project (gathered over the last half-century) and the Pierre Auger Observatory (gathered since 2005). The analyses consisted of changes in solar activity, as described in the database preserved by the Solar Influences Data Analysis Centre.
In each case, for the period studied, a clear connection emerged in between modifications in the strength of secondary cosmic radiation and the summed magnitude of all earthquakes with magnitudes greater than or equal to 4. Importantly, this connection only becomes obvious when the cosmic ray data are shifted 15 days forward relative to the seismic data.
Correlations in between modifications in cosmic ray strength and earthquakes are not evident in location-specific analyses. This truth might imply that in changes in cosmic ray strength one can see a phenomenon to which our world is subjected as a whole.
For the observed connection, we obtained more than 6 sigma, which suggests a chance of less than one in a billion that the connection is due to chance. We, therefore, have a very excellent analytical basis for declaring that we have found a really existing phenomenon.
It turns out that the international nature of the observed phenomenon and the 15-day advance in seismic activity evident in cosmic radiation are not the only intriguing puzzles associated with the discovery. Analyses reveal that the correlation maximum occurs every 10-11 years, a period comparable to the solar activity cycle.
There are other common periodicities of unidentified nature in both cosmic ray and seismic information. Examples include routine changes in seismic activity and the intensity of secondary cosmic radiation over a cycle corresponding to the Earths outstanding day (equivalent to 24 hours minus ~ 236 seconds).
The lack of classical descriptions for the observed periodicities provokes factor to consider of the possible role of other, less standard phenomena. Among these could be the passage of the Earth through a dark matter stream regulated by the Sun and other enormous bodies in our planetary system. The Earth, with its big magnetic field, is a very delicate particle detector, many times bigger than human-built detectors. It is for that reason reasonable to permit the possibility that it may respond to phenomena that are invisible to existing measuring gadgets.
” Regardless of the source of the observed periodicities, the most important thing at this stage of the research is that we have actually demonstrated a link in between the cosmic radiation recorded at the surface of our world and its seismicity– and if there is anything we can be sure of, it is that our observation points to entirely brand-new and interesting research study opportunities,” concludes Dr. Homola.
Recommendation: “Observation of big scale precursor connections between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity comparable to the solar cycle” by P. Homola, V. Marchenko, A. Napolitano, R. Damian, R. Guzik, D. Alvarez-Castillo, S. Stuglik, O. Ruimi, O. Skorenok, J. Zamora-Saa, J.M. Vaquero, T. Wibig, M. Knap, K. Dziadkowiec, M. Karpiel, O. Sushchov, J.W. Mietelski, K. Gorzkiewicz, N. Zabari, K. Almeida Cheminant, B. Idźkowski, T. Bulik, G. Bhatta, N. Budnev, R. Kamiński, M.V. Medvedev, K. Kozak, O. Bar, Ł. Bibrzycki, M. Bielewicz, M. Frontczak, P. Kovács, B. Łozowski, J. Miszczyk, M. Niedźwiecki, L. del Peral, M. Piekarczyk, M.D. Rodriguez Frias, K. Rzecki, K. Smelcerz, T. Sośnicki, J. Stasielak and A.A. Tursunov, 13 April 2023, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.DOI: 10.1016/ j.jastp.2023.106068.
The CREDO task, started in 2016 by the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IFJ PAN) in Cracow, tries to verify the previously understood hypothesis that earthquakes might potentially be anticipated by observing changes in … cosmic radiation. The worldwide CREDO (Cosmic Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory) job is a virtual cosmic ray observatory, open to all, that collects and processes data not only from advanced clinical detectors, but likewise from a large number of smaller detectors, among which the CMOS sensors in mobile phones are leading the method (to turn a smartphone into a cosmic ray detector, merely set up the complimentary CREDO Detector app). In each case, for the period studied, a clear correlation emerged in between modifications in the strength of secondary cosmic radiation and the summed magnitude of all earthquakes with magnitudes higher than or equal to 4. It turns out that the global nature of the observed phenomenon and the 15-day advance in seismic activity obvious in cosmic radiation are not the only appealing puzzles associated with the discovery. Examples consist of periodic changes in seismic activity and the strength of secondary cosmic radiation over a cycle matching to the Earths stellar day (equivalent to 24 hours minus ~ 236 seconds).
In area, you can see impending earthquakes. Not so actually, as in the above collage of images, however still plainly– in the changes in the strength of cosmic rays recorded by observatories on the surface area of our planet. Credit: IFJ PAN/NASA/JSC
Researchers have actually discovered a strong analytical link between modifications in cosmic radiation and seismic activity, possibly assisting in earthquake forecast. The capability to predict specific areas remains uncertain, and the discovery has actually led to intriguing questions about the potential impact of phenomena like dark matter streams.
There is a clear statistical connection in between global seismic activity and modifications in the strength of cosmic radiation recorded at the surface area of our planet, possibly assisting to anticipate earthquakes. Surprisingly, it shows a periodicity that gets away unambiguous physical analysis.
Strong earthquakes normally result in lots of human casualties and huge product losses. The scale of the catastrophe could be significantly minimized if we had the ability to predict the time and place of such cataclysmic events. The CREDO task, initiated in 2016 by the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IFJ PAN) in Cracow, tries to confirm the previously understood hypothesis that earthquakes might possibly be predicted by observing modifications in … cosmic radiation. Statistical analyses have actually revealed that a connection in between the two phenomena does certainly exist, however manifests qualities that no one had anticipated.
By The Henryk Niewodniczanski Institute of Nuclear Physics Polish Academy of Sciences
June 18, 2023
