The persistent heavy rain likewise caused the Juba River, situated in western Somalia, to overflow, inundating croplands and roads in the town of Luuq. In Bardheere, a bridge was swept away, cutting off access to the town.
Back in July 2023, scientists at the Climate Hazards Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara, utilized climate models to offer early caution for rains and flooding in the Horn of Africa throughout the OND “short rains” season. The Climate Hazards Center provides rains information and forecasts to FEWS NET, a program supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in partnership with a number of other companies, including NASA.
A favorable Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and cooler-than-normal temperature levels in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, typically prefers a wet OND in eastern Africa. These two forces are associated with flooding over East Africa and drought and fire in Australia.
” I think our forecasting was a great example of concern ratcheting up over time,” said Chris Funk, director of the Climate Hazards. “In July we anticipated that a strong El Niño and IOD threatened East Africa.
Considering that October, abnormally high rains has actually minimized prolonged dry spell conditions in the Horn of Africa. But it might also add to increased cholera outbreaks and crop and animals bugs and illness, on top of the death that has currently occurred.
Researchers at the Climate Hazards Center kept in mind that the strength of the IOD this year looks comparable to conditions in late 2019, when a positive IOD occasion contributed to exceptional rains, flooding, and displacement in the Horn of Africa. Uncommonly damp soils that year likewise added to an outbreak of desert locusts (Schistocerca gregaria) in early 2020, which plagued and destroyed crops on a minimum of 70,000 hectares (173,000 acres) of land in Kenya.
” Since late 2016, the eastern Horn of Africa has seen an almost unbroken string of either extremely dry or really damp rainy seasons,” Funk stated. “Using current advances in climate modeling– which can forecast these deluges and droughts months in advance– the Climate Hazard Center is working to link these predictions to much better inform risk farming, management, and livestock management practices.”
NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, utilizing Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey.
In 2023, heavy rains in the Horn of Africa resulted in prevalent flooding, displacing hundreds of thousands and triggering comprehensive damage, despite early environment forecasts cautioning of such events.
Heavy rains in the Horn of Africa submerged entire towns in floodwater.
Heavy rainfall led to comprehensive flooding in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya in October and November 2023. The floods was available in the wake of the most extended drought on record, which left countless individuals food insecure between 2020 and 2023. Given that October 1, flooding has actually eliminated more than 100 people and displaced more than 700,000, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
Nations within the Horn of Africa tend to have 2 rainy seasons: the October, November, and December (OND) “brief rains” and the March, April, and May (MAM) “long rains.” Rain in the OND season through mid-November has been much heavier than normal. Because October 1, precipitation overalls have actually been double to quadruple the average for southern and western Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).
Heavy rains led to extensive flooding in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya in October and November 2023. At the time, sea surface area temperature level patterns in the Indian and Pacific Oceans were forecast to bring unusually high rains to East Africa. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature levels in the western Indian Ocean and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, generally prefers a damp OND in eastern Africa. These two forces are associated with flooding over East Africa and drought and fire in Australia.
“In July we anticipated that a strong El Niño and IOD threatened East Africa.
Flooding in Beledweyne, Somalia shown in this satellite image acquired on November 15, 2023, by the Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8.
Extreme rainfall in the highlands of Ethiopia and Somalia in late October and early November raised the levels of the Shebelle River till it filled on November 11. Subsequent rain caused the river to spill out of its banks in main Somalia and immerse the surrounding area, consisting of the town of Beledweyne (Belet Weyne). Flooding in the town required an approximated 250,000 people (90 percent of the population) out of their homes.
Beledweyne, Somalia is revealed before the recent flooding in this satellite image obtained on September 12, 2023, by the Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8.
Beledweyne is shown in the upper image above on November 15, 2023. For comparison, the image on just above shows the same area on September 12, 2023. The images, gotten by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8, are incorrect color to highlight the presence of water, which appears in shades of blue.
The video below programs a wider view of the Shebelle River.