Sea ice in the Antarctic Ross Sea, on February 4 of 2018. In November 2023, the Antarctic Sea Ice Prediction Network-South (SIPN-South) task coordinated another prediction for summertime sea ice conditions, particularly for February 2024. The forecasted sea ice location (SIA) and sea ice extent (SIE) for February 2024 were 1.441 million square kilometers and 2.105 million square kilometers, respectively, a little greater than the historic lows observed in 2023.
Antarctic sea ice predictions for February 2024, made using innovative deep learning models, carefully matched real observations, verifying the effectiveness of the models in the middle of the continuous international warming concerns. Sea ice in the Antarctic Ross Sea, on February 4 of 2018. Credit: Jian LiuIn 2023, in the middle of rising international concerns about the hottest year on record and record-high ocean temperatures, attention turned to the Antarctic sea ice. Following a record low in February 2023, the expansion of Antarctic sea ice was abnormally slow, reaching an anomaly of -2.809 million square kilometers by July 6, 2023. After setting brand-new minimum records in February for 2 successive years (2022 and 2023) and 2023 being labeled as the “least sea ice year,” there was speculation about the possibility of reaching brand-new historic lows in February 2024. In November 2023, the Antarctic Sea Ice Prediction Network-South (SIPN-South) project collaborated another prediction for summer sea ice conditions, particularly for February 2024. Led by Professor Qinghua Yang from Sun Yat-sen University and the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), the research team used a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) neural network to construct a seasonal-scale Antarctic sea ice forecast model.Validating Predictions Through ObservationThe team sent their forecast leads to December 2023, which went through the examination of peer review and were published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences in early February 2024. In their forecast, the team predicts Antarctic sea ice remaining near historic lows in February 2024, but with less indication of setting a brand-new record low. The anticipated sea ice location (SIA) and sea ice extent (SIE) for February 2024 were 1.441 million square kilometers and 2.105 million square kilometers, respectively, slightly higher than the historic lows observed in 2023.” We are positive in the efficiency of the ConvLSTM model in anticipating Antarctic sea ice conditions since it performed convincingly in the eight-year reforecast experiments.” Teacher Qinghua Yang shared his thoughts, “However, theres likewise nervousness about a possible whip-lash impact. Forecasts wait for recognition through observation information, after all.” So, smooth or whip-lash landing?Fast forward to the current satellite observations for February 2024, and the results remain in. The observed SIA and SIE values for February 2024 are 1.510 million square kilometers and 2.142 million square kilometers, respectively, near the historical lows tape-recorded in 2023 (1.151 million square kilometers and 1.913 million square kilometers). The comparison between the predictions and observations suggests an extremely close alignment, reinforcing the reliability of the forecasting system.Furthermore, the sea ice location and extent from December 2023 to February 2024 fall within one standard discrepancy of the predicted worths, highlighting the reliability of the forecasting system. The successful contrast in between the forecast and observation information verifies the precision of the ConvLSTM model and its capacity for trusted Antarctic sea ice forecasting. This outcome, sent to the SIPN-South global comparison task in December 2023, places it as one of the best-performing forecasts amongst the 15 contributions.” As we look over these comparison results, theres a sensation of relief and a boost in our confidence.” Professor Qinghua Yang shows, “As the Earth enters a period called the boiling era, marked by the conclusion of 2023 as the hottest year because industrialization, our successful forecast not just highlights the significance of enhancing Antarctic sea ice forecast research study but likewise demonstrates the substantial application capacity of deep knowing approaches in this vital location.” Reference: “Deep Learning Shows Promise for Seasonal Prediction of Antarctic Sea Ice in a Rapid Decline Scenario” by Xiaoran Dong, Yafei Nie, Jinfei Wang, Hao Luo, Yuchun Gao, Yun Wang, Jiping Liu, Dake Chen and Qinghua Yang, 6 February 2024, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.DOI: 10.1007/ s00376-024-3380-y.
