Hurricane Milton is already the strongest storm so late in the season. It’s one of the most intense hurricanes ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico and, according to Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University, it’s intensifying at one of the highest rates on record.
“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its Tuesday morning discussion.
How bad is it?
By Monday evening, Hurricane Milton’s s maximum sustained wind speeds reached 180 miles per hour. This firmly puts it in the strongest category of storms (Category 5), according to the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The storm’s current trajectory puts it on a direct course to Tampa — where, if nothing changes, it’s expected to cause major damage.
“If the storm stays on the current track, it will be the worst storm to impact the Tampa area in over 100 years,” according to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Tampa.
“Milton poses an extremely serious threat to Florida” and is “a life-threatening situation,” the NHC said.
Forecasters estimate an unprecedented 10- to 15- foot storm surge in the Tampa Bay area — compared to Hurricane Helene which caused a range of 4 to 8 feet. Judging by what Helene did, Milton sounds like it can be absolutely devastating.
All preparation and evacuation should be rushed on Tuesday, authorities say. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis urged those in the hurricane’s path to heed the warnings of local officials.
“Evacuations are underway, and we have suspended tolls and opened roadway shoulders to make it easier for Floridians to get to safety,” DeSantis said on social media. “The State of Florida continues to fulfill requests from communities in the potential path of Hurricane Milton as we prepare for landfall. Hundreds of first responders will be embedded in potential impact sites along Florida’s west coast to begin search and rescue operations as soon as the storm passes.”
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“I highly encourage you to evacuate” if you’re in an evacuation zone, said Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “We are preparing … for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma. “
Rapid intensification
Just two known hurricanes have had 180+ mph winds in the Gulf of Mexico since 1950: Allen in 1980 and Rita in 2005. This came as a surprise as Milton underwent what experts call “rapid intensification”, blasting from a Category 4 to a Category 5 hurricane in a matter of hours.
The term “rapid intensification” in meteorology is typically defined as an increase in a storm’s wind speed by at least 30 knots, or approximately 35 miles per hour, within a 24-hour period. However, on Monday, Hurricane Milton far exceeded this threshold, intensifying at more than twice the rate.
This remarkable acceleration of wind speed places it among the most extreme examples of rapid intensification in recent history, comparable to record-breaking storms like Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Felix in 2007, both of which also experienced similar surges in strength over a short time frame.
This kind of rapid development is particularly concerning, as it leaves less time for preparation and increases the potential for severe impacts. Scientists expect the intensity of the hurricane to drop somewhat, but urge everyone in the line of fire to take extreme precautions.
“While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida,” the hurricane center said.
Is this because of climate change?
Although it’s difficult to link climate change to individual events, rapid intensification is exactly the type of problem you expect to see with climate change. Storms gain strength from hotter ocean temperatures, and the Gulf of Mexico has been particularly warm this season, providing a perfect environment for hurricanes like Milton to intensify quickly. Warmer waters mean more energy for storms, leading to stronger and potentially more destructive hurricanes.
According to research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the frequency of rapid intensification events has been increasing in recent decades, likely due to the warming of the oceans. While the exact role of climate change in Hurricane Milton’s explosive growth is still being studied, there is a clear connection between rising sea surface temperatures and the trend toward more powerful storms.
With landfall expected in less than 24 hours, Florida and nearby areas are holding their breath. All eyes are on Milton as it roars toward the coast, carrying with it the potential for devastation but also the hope that communities, prepared and resilient, will weather the storm.
