Warming rates during the rapid warming duration (1975/01 -1997/ 12) (a) and the warming hiatus period (1998/01 -2013/ 12) (b) and the warming rate modification throughout the hiatus period relative to the fast warming duration (c). All warming rates are derived from the 28 simulated (bars) and 6 observed (vertical lines) worldwide temperature time series.
Nevertheless, the sophisticated and sophisticated climate models in CMIP5 might not replicate this warming slowdown. During 1998-2013, the models mostly provide a rapidly warming surge which greatly differs the observed flat temperature time series. The models significantly overstate the observed warming rate of the current duration. IPCC AR5 mentioned: “Almost all CMIP5 historic simulations do not replicate the observed current warming hiatus”. Therefore, the simulation and prediction capability of sophisticated environment models have been questioned.
Successful simulations of the international warming downturn are expected in the new-generation designs. As the information of 28 brand-new models end up being available, it is necessary to prompt analyze the ability of the CMIP6 designs on providing the current warming downturn.
Figure 2. Warming rates of interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal variabilities (IAV, IDV, MDV) and the secular pattern (ST) throughout the quick warming period (1975/01 -1997/ 12, left signs) and the warming hiatus duration (1998/01 -2013/ 12, right signs) obtained from the 28 simulated (green and orange pentagrams) and 6 observed (red and blue bars) international temperature time series. Credit: © Science China Press
By contrast to 6 widely used worldwide surface temperature level datasets, research team from First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources examines the performance of the 28 freshly launched CMIP6 designs in simulating the recent warming slowdown, and discovers that a lot of CMIP6 designs still fail to recreate the warming slowdown, although they present some motivating improvements when compared with CMIP5 models (Figure 1).
Even more, they checked out the possible factors for the problem of CMIP6 models in simulating the current warming slowdown. They reveal that it is related to the designs deficiencies in imitating the distinct temperature level change signals from the human-induced long-lasting warming pattern and/or the 3 important natural variabilities at interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal scales (Figure 2).
This study reveals that the secret in imitating and forecasting near-term temperate modification is to properly separate and simulate the two distinct signals, i.e., the human-induced long-lasting warming pattern and natural variabilities, especially those at interannual, interdecadal and multidecadal scales. This recommends that the key-scale irregularities need more attention in the designs, considering their essential roles in regulating the warming rate change at decadal to multidecadal scales. This result can supply essential insight for the simulation and prediction of near-term climate modifications.
Referral: “Could CMIP6 climate models recreate the early-2000s worldwide warming slowdown?” by Meng Wei, Qi Shu, Zhenya Song, Yajuan Song, Xiaodan Yang, Yongqing Guo, Xinfang Li and Fangli Qiao, 15 April 2021, Science China Earth Sciences.DOI: 10.1007/ s11430-020-9740-3.
This research study was moneyed by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41806043 & & 41821004).
A recent study led by Dr. Wei and Dr. Qiao from the First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources offers an evaluation of the efficiency of the newly released CMIP6 designs in simulating the global warming slowdown observed in the early 2000s. This research study reveals that the type in replicating and forecasting near-term temperate change is to correctly separate and simulate the 2 distinct signals, i.e., the human-induced long-lasting warming pattern and natural irregularities, specifically those at interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal scales. This work was online released in Science China Earth Sciences.
After the extraordinary warming over the last quarter of the 20th century, the global surface temperature level development slowed unexpectedly during 1998-2013 in spite of the sharp increase in greenhouse gas emissions; this phenomenon is described the international warming hiatus or downturn to be more exact. The international warming downturn challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature modification mechanisms, thus has been among the most concerning problems in current climate research and even public.
A recent research study led by Dr. Wei and Dr. Qiao from the First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources provides an assessment of the performance of the recently released CMIP6 models in imitating the global warming downturn observed in the early 2000s. Warming rates throughout the quick warming period (1975/01 -1997/ 12) (a) and the warming hiatus period (1998/01 -2013/ 12) (b) and the warming rate modification during the hiatus duration relative to the rapid warming duration (c). The models significantly overstate the observed warming rate of the recent duration. Effective simulations of the global warming slowdown are expected in the new-generation models. As the information of 28 brand-new designs end up being available, it is necessary to timely examine the capability of the CMIP6 models on providing the current warming slowdown.