Particularly, the scientists asked 70 individuals to consistently select in between 2 lottos in which they could acquire some benefit with some likelihood. The lottery games varied in the size of the reward, the probability of receiving it, and the amount of danger included. The outcomes revealed that immediately after experiencing an outcome that was bigger than the anticipated worth of the chosen alternative, participants acted as if the likelihood of winning in the next lottery increased.
Senior author of the study Assistant Professor Hiroshi Yamada states “This behavior is unexpected due to the fact that winning possibilities were clearly described to the participants (individuals did not need to learn them from experience) and these likelihoods were likewise completely independent of previous results.”
Using their vibrant possibility theory design, the scientists were able to figure out that the change in habits is driven by a modification in the perception of probabilities instead of by a modification in valuation of benefits.
Yamada likewise says: “Such knowing from unexpected events underlies support knowing theory and is a widely known algorithm that occurs when people require to learn the rewards from experience. It is intriguing that it occurs even if knowing is not essential.”
In comparable experiments with macaque monkeys, whose brains carefully resemble those of humans, essentially the same results were observed. Researchers commented that the resemblance in human and monkey behavior was remarkable in this research study.
Based on the results of this research, it is anticipated that the investigation of the monkey brain will cause an understanding of the brain systems involved in the understanding of rewards and possibility that everyone use when making risky decisions, in addition to the happiness we feel when we prosper.
Recommendation: “Dynamic possibility theory: Two core decision theories coexist in the gaming habits of monkeys and people” by Agnieszka Tymula, Xueting Wang, Yuri Imaizumi, Takashi Kawai, Jun Kunimatsu, Masayuki Matsumoto and Hiroshi Yamada, 19 May 2023, Science Advances.DOI: 10.1126/ sciadv.ade7972.
This research study was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers JP:15 H05374 and 21H02797, Takeda Science Foundation, Council for Addiction Behavior Studies, Narishige Neuroscience Research Foundation, Moonshot R&D JPMJMS2294 (H.Y.), and ARC DP190100489 (A.T.).
They developed the “dynamic prospect theory” model integrating possibility theory and support learning theory. The research study revealed that when monkeys or people experienced a larger-than-expected result, they tended to view increased possibilities of winning in subsequent lottery games. One possible way would be to calculate the anticipated worth of each choice by increasing each possible result amount by its likelihood and then picking the choice with the highest anticipated worth. The outcomes revealed that immediately after experiencing an outcome that was bigger than the expected value of the selected option, individuals acted as if the likelihood of winning in the next lottery increased.
They established the “vibrant prospect theory” design integrating prospect theory and reinforcement knowing theory. The study revealed that when monkeys or people experienced a larger-than-expected outcome, they tended to view increased possibilities of winning in subsequent lottos.
How do people make choices when the outcomes are uncertain?
One possible way would be to determine the expected value of each option by increasing each possible outcome amount by its possibility and after that selecting the alternative with the highest anticipated worth. While this technique would make the most of the reward in expectation, this is not what people tend to do. In particular, people appear to be irrationally influenced by previous outcomes of their choices when making subsequent options.
Scientists from the University of Tsukuba have established and validated a model (” dynamic possibility theory”) that incorporates the most popular design in behavioral economics to explain decision-making under unpredictability– prospect theory, and a well-established design of discovering from neuroscience– support knowing theory. This design more precisely described the choices that people and monkeys made while facing risk than prospect theory or reinforcement learning theory alone.
