Sea level increase and El Niños can intensify this type of flooding. El Niño is a periodic climate phenomenon defined by higher-than-normal sea levels and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. Information from the SWOT satellite shows sea level anomalies– how much greater or lower sea levels are compared to the typical height– off the coast of Ecuador and Peru on August 12, 2023, and October 3, 2023. Missions that keep track of sea levels, consisting of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite and Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, help to keep track of El Niños in the near term. SWOT in particular, gathers data on sea levels right up to the coast, which can assist to enhance sea level increase forecasts.
Flood Event Predictions
The NASA analysis discovers that a strong El Niño could result in up to five instances of a type of flooding called a 10-year flood event this winter in cities consisting of Seattle and San Diego. The researchers note that by the 2030s, increasing seas and environment modification might result in these cities experiencing comparable numbers of 10-year floods every year, with no El Niño needed.
Information from the SWOT satellite shows water level abnormalities– just how much higher or lower water level are compared to the average height– off the coast of Ecuador and Peru on August 12, 2023, and October 3, 2023. The data indicates the advancement of an El Niño along the west coast of the Americas. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
” Im a little stunned that the analysis discovered these 10-year events could become prevalent so rapidly,” stated Phil Thompson, an oceanographer at the University of Hawaii and a member of NASAs water level change science group, which carried out the analysis. “I would have thought maybe by the 2040s or 2050s.”
Ten-year floods are those that have a one in 10 opportunity of taking place in any given year. Theyre a procedure of how high local water level end up being: The extent of flooding in a particular city or neighborhood depends on numerous elements, including an areas topography and the place of homes and facilities relative to the ocean. Ten-year floods can result in what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration categorizes as moderate flooding, with some inundation of roads and buildings, and the possible requirement to evacuate people or move possessions to greater ground.
NASAs seaside flooding analysis finds that by the 2030s, during strong El Niño years, cities on the west coast of the Americas might see up to 10 of these 10-year flood occasions. By the 2050s, strong El Niños may lead to as many as 40 circumstances of these events in a given year.
Viewing Sea Levels Rise
Water expands as it warms, so water level tend to be higher in locations with warmer water. Forecasters and scientists keep track of ocean temperatures as well as water levels to spot the development and development of an El Niño.
” Climate change is already moving the baseline water level along coastlines all over the world,” said Ben Hamlington, a sea level scientist at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and lead for the firms sea level change science group.
Sea levels are rising in reaction to planetary warming, as Earths environment and ocean are warming up and ice sheets and shelves melt. This has already increased the number of high-tide, or annoyance, flooding days coastal cities experience throughout the year. Phenomena like El Niños and storm surges, which briefly enhance sea levels, substance these results.
Satellite Monitoring and Future Preparations
Objectives that monitor sea levels, consisting of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite and Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, aid to monitor El Niños in the near term. SWOT in particular, gathers information on water level right up to the coast, which can help to enhance water level rise projections. That type of information could aid policymakers and coordinators in preparing their communities for increasing seas in the next years.
“As climate change speeds up, some cities will see flooding 5 to 10 times more often. SWOT will keep watch on these changes to ensure seaside communities are not captured off guard,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, SWOT program researcher and director of the ocean physics program at NASA Headquarters in Washington.
An uncommonly high tide, called a King Tide, floods a highway on-ramp in Northern California in January 2023. Sea level rise and El Niños can intensify this type of flooding. Credit: California King Tides Project
Such high-tide flooding that swamps roadways and buildings along the west coast of the Americas tends to be unusual beyond El Niño years, however that could alter by the 2030s.
An analysis by NASAs water level modification science team finds that if a strong El Niño develops this winter, cities along the western coasts of the Americas could see a boost in the frequency of high-tide flooding that can swamp roadways and spill into low-lying buildings.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño is a periodic environment phenomenon defined by higher-than-normal sea levels and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. El Niño, which is still establishing this year, can bring more rain than normal to the U.S. Southwest and dry spell to countries in the western Pacific like Indonesia.